The Climate Crisis is here, and its deadly impacts will escalate rapidly.

This is an enormous and widely underestimated threat, and one that no nation is adequately prepared for.

The average temperature of the Earth’s surface is now ~1.2°C higher, (relative to pre-industrial levels) due to global heating, fuelled by greenhouse gas emissions.
According to Chatham House: “If emissions follow the trajectory set by current NDCs [government pledges], there is a less than 5% chance of keeping temperatures well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and less than 1% chance of reaching the 1.5°C target set by the 2015 Paris Agreement.”
When surveyed, most leading climate scientists (IPCC co-authors) reported that they anticipated global heating of 3°C or more by 2100.
Record-breaking heat and loss of ice suggests that global heating and its impacts are worse - and happening sooner - than most models predicted. “July was packed with weather anomalies, but some were so abnormal they sent a wave of consternation through the scientific community” - Washington Post (August 2023)

Sources:

How Do We Know Climate Change Is Real?, NASA (2022)
What is Climate Change?, Met Office (2022)
Global emissions have not yet peaked, Our World in Data (2022)
Climate Change Risk Assessment, Chatham House (2021)
Top climate scientists are sceptical that nations will rein in global warming, Nature (2021)

Table of impacts

We are already seeing…	Further warming will mean…
Heatwaves becoming stronger and more frequent (See Appendix A as support for increasing frequency) Example: Persistent heatwaves in Europe in 2022 caused tens of thousands of excess deaths. The UK recorded temperatures exceeded 40°C for the first time ever. [1]	Increasing numbers of people and species exposed to deadly heat stress (Appendix A). At just 2°C of global heating, one billion people are projected to experience ‘a potentially fatal combination of heat and humidity’ [2]
Droughts intensifying and spreading Example: The record-breaking temperatures and low rainfall in the summer of 2022 saw Europe’s worst drought in 500 years, made ‘at least 20 times more likely by human-casued climate change’. [3]	No region will be spared from the impacts of drought By 2040 it is projected that one third of global cropland will be affected by severe drought, and 700 million people a year are likely to be exposed to droughts of at least six months’ duration.[4]
Fires starting and spreading more easily amidst heatwaves and droughts Example: In mid August 2023 Canada is enduring its worst wildfire season, with more than 1,000 active fires burning across the country, More than half of the region’s population is under evacuation orders. [5]	Even the Arctic will be vulnerable to wildfires. Climate change and land-use change are projected to make wildfires more frequent and intense, with a global increase of extreme fires of up to 14 per cent by 2030, 30 per cent by the end of 2050 and 50 per cent by the end of the century. [6]
Flooding exacerbated by cyclones, which are fuelled by hotter oceans Example: 2022 saw devastating floods in Pakistan that were reported to have affected over 30 million people. These impacts were exacerbated by heatwaves approaching 50°C in the preceding months.[7]	Low-lying and coastal regions will be submerged, and inland regions also subject to increased risks due to river flooding and extreme rainfall. Under the IPCC’s models, the impact of sea level rise alone would mean that large, populous areas of the UK, including East & South Yorkshire, Lincolnshire, Cambridgeshire, Norfolk, Merseyside, South Wales, Somerset and London boroughs such as Fulham, Greenwich and Stratford, would be underwater by 2050. [8]
Food production is threatened by heat, droughts, extreme weather and losses of wild animals such as fish and pollinating insects. Example: EU maize, sunflower and soybean yields were expected to have fallen by around 8% during the 2022 heatwave, piling further pressure onto food prices.[9]	Crop failure and loss of marine life cause and exacerbate hunger and famine Whilst global demand for food is expected to rise by 50% by 2050, crop yields ‘could decline by 30% in the absence of dramatic emissions reductions’.[4]
Irreversible damage to ecosystems Example: In mid August 2023 Corals across several countries are bleaching and dying from unprecedented levels of heat stress, prompting fears that an unfolding tragedy in Central America, North America and the Caribbean could become a global event.[10]	Elimination of vital ecosystems. Amongst the most vulnerable ecosystems are coral reefs: Without drastic action to limit greenhouse gas emissions, 99% will experience heatwaves too frequent for them to recover by the early 2030s.[11] Loss of corals has devastating wider impacts on marine life and the oceans capacity to lock up CO2, and also exposes coastal regions to more damage from currents and waves.
Impacts on physical and mental health Example: Australia’s 2019–20 bushfires directly caused ~ 450 deaths, 1300 emergency asthma presentations, and 1120 cardiovascular and 2030 respiratory admissions, in addition to worsening mental health outcomes and displacing 47 000 people.[12]	Heat, pollution, malnutrition and wider spread of infections hugely exacerbate disease burden. The combined effect of a heating planet will have ‘cascading impacts on the social and natural systems that good health depends upon’[12]
Areas becoming uninhabitable due to heat, drought, famine and conflict. Example: Whilst UN estimates that globally 20 million per year are displaced due to extreme climate-related events[13], in 2014 the Welsh town of Fairbourne became to first in the UK to be subject to ‘decommissioning’, as its future was deemed incompatible with rising seas.[14]	Massive increase in the number of climate refugees, along with intensified conflict over food and resources Models predict that ‘each degree of temperature rise above the current baseline roughly corresponds to one billion humans left outside the temperature niche’. [15]?

	Source
1	Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022, Nature Medicine (2023)
2	One billion face heat-stress risk from 2°C rise, Met Office (2021)
3	Climate change made 2022’s northern-hemisphere droughts ‘at least 20 times’ more likely, Carbon Brief (2022)
4	Climate Change Risk Assessment, Chatham House (2021)
5	Canada wildfires: British Columbia in state of emergency while 19,000 flee Yellowknife fire, Guardian (2023)
6	Number of wildfires to rise by 50% by 2100 and governments are not prepared, experts warn , United Nations Environment Program (2022)
7	SITREP dated 18th November 2022, National Disaster Management Authority (2022),
8	Coastal Risk Screening Tool, Climate Central (2021)
9	Falls in Europe’s crop yields due to heatwaves could worsen price rises, Guardian (2022)
10	‘Huge’ coral bleaching unfolding across the Americas prompts fears of global tragedy, Guardian (2022)
11	Safe havens for coral reefs will be almost non-existent at 1.5°C of global warming, The Conversation (2023)
12	The 2022 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: health at the mercy of fossil fuels, The Lancet (2022)
13	Displaced on the Frontlines of Climate Change, UN Office of the High Commissioner for Refugees (2021)
14	The UK climate refugees who won’t leave, BBC (2022)
15	Future of the human climate niche, PNAS (2019)